时间：2024年12月19日10:00—12:00

地点：科研楼1115室

主讲人：刘冲，北京大学

题目：Trade War beyond Trade Sector: Measurement and Effects

主讲人简介：刘冲，北京大学博雅青年学者，长聘副教授，财政学系主任，国家级青年人才获得者，世界银行研究顾问。研究领域为公共经济学、发展经济学和大数据应用。近年来在EJ、JDE、IJIO、《经济研究》、《管理世界》等国内外权威期刊发表论文五十余篇。主持多个国家级、省部级研究课题。荣获霍英东高等院校青年教师奖、洪银兴经济学奖（青年）、全国优秀财政理论研究成果奖等荣誉。

Abstract：We develop a text-based measure on Chinese listed firms’ exposure to the trade war using earning conference transcripts. Not only does our measure effectively capture firm level trade war exposure, proven by the fact that around March 2018, firms with higher our exposure measure experienced larger declines in market values, it also has a unique advantage to measure the impact on the domestic market firms that do not directly participate in international trade but are indirectly affected through the supply chain. We then use this new measure to study the impact of the U.S.-China trade war on Chinese firms. We find firms with higher trade war exposure expands after the trade war. This surprising positive effect comes solely from the domestic market firms. Mechanism analysis shows that supply chain adjustment drives the size expansion of domestic market firms: After the trade war, export-oriented firms turn to domestic suppliers for input purchasing, leading to their scale expansion.